Pickup Truck Sales, September 2008 CYTD

Methodology
September sales data are in, and as just about everybody knows, total vehicle sales are down, not a little, but a lot, for all manufacturers and all segments.

But how are pickups doing as a share of industry and within segment? Who is winning and who is losing ground? There are lots of ways to look at the data, and they all have pros and cons, but I prefer to look at CYTD (calendar year to date) numbers rather than monthly numbers, and compare those with the prior full calendar year. That method tends to iron out monthly swings (as September this year versus September last year would highlight), and provides a constant base from which to judge how the year is progressing. And I like to focus on segment share and vehicle share of segment data rather than the absolute numbers.

Total Pickups
Pickup share in industry is 14.9% of industry for Sept 2008 CYTD, down from 16.9% for full year 2007 and 19.0% as recently as the 2005 calendar year.

The GM share of total pickups has increased from 36.2% last year to 37.1% September CYTD. Dodge has declined from 15.0% last year to 13.6% September CYTD. Toyota has increased from 13.6% to 14.5%. The rest have relatively small changes in total pickup segment share.

Full-Size Pickups
Full-Size Pickup sales represent 11.8% of total industry sales September 2008 CYTD. This compares with 13.7% last year and 15.0% in 2005. This is a HUGE decline, and probably recognizes the decline in the casual, or discretionary, full-size pickup market.

Compared with full year 2007, Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra have both gained segment share, while the Dodge Ram has lost share. The rest are largely unchanged (F-Series and Titan lost a little, Tundra gained a little).

Compact/Mid-Size Pickups
Compact/Mid-Size Pickup sales represent 3.0% of industry sales September 2008 CYTD. This compares with 3.2% last year and 4.0% in 2005. Not as dramatic as the full-size pickups, I’d call that a significant decline, and one that reflects economic hard times and the increased price of fuel.

Compared with full year 2007 the Ford Ranger has significantly increased segment share (based on price merchandising, and despite its age) and the Tacoma has increased share (based on a great product and distribution network). The Dodge Dakota has lost significant share of segment (as has its Raider twin) and the Colorado/Canyon twins are also declining in share. Ridgeline is slowing increasing share of segment.

What’s next?
Dodge is just now introducing its all-new 2009 Ram, and next month Ford will introduce its major change F-150. Both are expected to do well, and will get strong marketing support. The pickup market is not expected to improve for next year, and the fight for share will get all the more fierce. Toyota has already said they don’t want to be caught between the big dogs fighting for share in 2009.

After that, Ford GM and Dodge are scheduled to introduce half-ton diesels. Not sure how that will work out; depends on the engine price premium versus gas and the diesel fuel versus gasoline differential at the time. Hard to predict. And soon after that, I expect some truly compact pickup introductions. Who will be first?

Toyota’s 2007 A-BAT Concept: Is this the future of compact pickups?

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